IAI to Develop a Deterrence Assessment Tool

IAI is attempting to develop a Deterrence Assessment Tool to measure and explain the effectiveness of deterrent strategies and tactics in Gray Zone conflicts. These conflicts can include political, economic, informational, or military competitions, and are more intense than normal steady-state diplomacy, but are short of conventional war. Studying deterrence in this realm is difficult because success is defined by the absence of adversarial action.

The developed tool will strive to understand the impact of a challenger’s strategy on a target’s intent to pursue a Gray Zone conflict. The tool will also attempt to understand the causal impact of a deterrent/compellent strategy, the role of alternate explanations, and the result of a strategy to the effects of alternate explanations.

The complicated idea of target “intent” will be studied by observing quantitative behaviors and outcomes related to demands made between actors. The tool will attempt to observe changes in the target’s strategies, and measure the outcomes of dispute between challengers and targets. The tool will also attempt to track recurrence of issues between challengers and targets. Each of these study areas provides observable indicators of the target’s intent, strategy, and causal impact in Gray Zone disputes.

This robust DARPA-funded Deterrence Assessment Tool is proposed to provide assessment and understanding of the effectiveness of deterrent strategies against adversaries in Gray Zone conflict situations. The tool’s design will pursue groundbreaking research for the intelligence and operations community to address critical needs. The tool will be designed to help operational users like combatant commands, and other US government agencies like the Dept. of State.

Further, the tool may be able to be used by strategic business decision-making applications in highly competitive industries such as information technology.

For more information on this Deterrence Assessment Tool or to find out how IAI can develop a custom deterrence assessment solution for you, contact us at contact@i-a-i.com.


Image courtesy of Mike MacKenzie

Distribution Statement A. Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited.